This is an estimate. Check the National Weather Service forecast (opens in a new tab) before you go.
Conditions change fast. Turn back if it doesn't feel right.
How this works
- Feels likeWe use the National Weather Service wind chill formula. It only applies at 50°F or colder with wind over 3 mph; otherwise feels-like is the air temperature. We pair the coldest hour with the strongest wind, to be safe.
- Effort and timeWorking hard makes heat, so a warm layer may move to your pack. Long days add a spare layer. Rain counts when an hour’s chance is 20% or more.
- Where it fitsThis is for hiking, hunting, camp, and other time on land. It doesn’t cover clothing for cold-water paddling.
- What we can't knowForecasts change, and everyone runs a little warm or cold. Bring what you need to adjust.
See every rule and its source
Base layer
Wear: A midweight base layer, top and bottom
When: feels like below 20°F
Why: Long underwear keeps your legs warm in deep cold.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Wear: A long-sleeve base layer (wool or synthetic)
When: feels like below 50°F
Why: Next to your skin, it moves sweat away so you stay warm.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Wear: A light, quick-dry shirt
When: always (the fallback)
Why: Wool or synthetic dries fast when you sweat.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Mid layer
Wear: A warm insulated jacket (down or synthetic)
When: feels like below 25°F
Why: At these temperatures a fleece alone isn't enough to hold your heat.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Bring: A fleece or light insulated jacket
When: feels like 35°F up to 55°F, hard pace
Why: Hard work makes its own heat. Put it on at stops.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Wear: A fleece or light insulated jacket
When: feels like below 55°F
Why: It traps warm air around you. Take it off before you sweat on climbs.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Bring: A light fleece or jacket
When: always (the fallback)
Why: The Park Service lists extra clothing as one of the Ten Essentials. Weather can change.
Source: National Park Service, Ten Essentials
Shell
Wear: A waterproof rain jacket
When: light or rain or mixed
Why: Rain is likely while you're out. Staying dry is how you stay warm.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Wear: A waterproof or water-resistant shell
When: snow
Why: Snow melts on warm clothes. A shell keeps the layers under it dry.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Wear: A windproof shell
When: wind 15 mph or more
Why: Wind pulls heat away fast. A shell blocks it.
Source: Our rule of thumb; National Weather Service, Wind Chill Chart
Bring: A rain jacket
When: always (the fallback)
Why: The Park Service lists a rain shell with the Ten Essentials.
Source: National Park Service, Ten Essentials
Extras
Bring: A warm hat and gloves
When: feels like below 40°F
Why: The Weather Service's cold-weather list includes a hat and gloves.
Source: National Weather Service, Prepare for Cold Weather; Our rule of thumb
Bring: A spare dry layer
When: out 6 h or more; or rain or mixed or snow
Why: The Weather Service's cold-weather list includes an extra change of clothes.
Source: National Weather Service, Prepare for Cold Weather; Our rule of thumb
Bring: Rain pants
When: rain or mixed, out 2 h or more
Why: Wet legs chill you on a long, rainy outing.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Warnings
Skip: Skip cotton
When: feels like below 50°F; or light or rain or snow or mixed
Why: Cotton holds water and dries slowly, so wet cotton keeps you cold.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Notes
Wear: Dress so you can shed a layer
When: temperature swing 15° or more
Why: It warms up a lot while you're out.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Wear: Start a little cool
When: feels like below 50°F, hard pace
Why: You'll warm up within minutes of climbing. Shed a layer before you sweat.
Source: Our rule of thumb
Sources & last checked
- National Weather Service, Wind Chill Chart (opens in a new tab)
checked
- National Weather Service, Prepare for Cold Weather (opens in a new tab)
checked
- National Park Service, Ten Essentials (opens in a new tab)
checked
- National Weather Service, forecast terms (opens in a new tab)
checked
- Henricks Outdoors rule of thumb (awaiting owner approval) (opens in a new tab)
checked
- National Weather Service API (opens in a new tab)
Hourly temperature, wind, and precipitation
Source: National Weather Service, Wind Chill Chart, National Weather Service, Prepare for Cold Weather, National Park Service, Ten Essentials, National Weather Service, forecast terms, Henricks Outdoors rule of thumb (awaiting owner approval), National Weather Service APIlast checked
Every source we use is on the Credits page.
Related guides
- How to Layer Clothing for Winter and Shoulder-Season HikingA four-layer system for winter and shoulder-season hiking — base, active mid, wind, and puffy/shell — built around moisture control, with budget, mid-range, and premium gear picks at each tier and the layering mistakes to avoid.
- Stay Warm While Hiking: The Science of LayeringExplains the three-layer system for cold-weather hiking — moisture-wicking base, insulating mid, weatherproof shell — with fabric picks like merino, fleece, and down, plus tips on adjusting layers mid-hike and mistakes like cotton and overdressing.
- May Layering for Hikers and Backpackers: Big Swings, Real Rain, Real SweatDress for May’s fake summer afternoons and honest hypothermia evenings: wick a baselayer, add an active mid with zip control, keep a real rain shell accessible, stash puffy insulation dry for stops, and manage sweat so you do not wet-out from the inside before the storm arrives.
About this tool
What should you wear for a hike, a hunt, or a day on the riverbank? Pick a place and time to use the National Weather Service forecast, or type in the weather yourself. Tell us how hard you’ll be moving and how long you’ll be out, and you’ll get a simple layering plan: a base layer next to your skin, a middle layer for warmth, a shell for wind and rain, and the extras worth bringing, like a warm hat or dry gloves.
Every suggestion comes with a plain reason, so you learn the system instead of memorizing a list. The tool accounts for wind chill using the Weather Service’s own formula, changes its advice when you’ll be working hard, and warns you off cotton when it’s cold or wet.
It’s a starting point, not a rule. Forecasts change, and everyone runs a little warm or cold, so bring what you need to adjust. The rules behind every suggestion are listed on this page with their sources.